Posted Aug 8th 2008 1:12PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Citigroup Inc. (C), Merrill Lynch (MER), Wachovia Corp (WB), Washington Mutual (WM), Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Newcastle Investment (NCT), MBIA Inc (MBI), Gramercy Capital (GKK), E*TRADE (ETFC), East West Bancorp (EWBC)
Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 225, so I decided to peg the financial stocks I wrote about investing in as a pool. We are often accused of bragging on the good days and having memory loss on the bad so I wanted to be transparent and forthright on the downside.
To my surprise the financial stock pool is actually
up 9.96% on average. Six stocks increased in value, two were down and two stocks were even money. The big winner was
MBIA Inc (NYSE:
MBI) up over 68%!
In the same time frame the DJIA has gone from
11,397.56 to 11,431.43 (even) and the S&P has gone from 1263.2 to 1266.06 last night, for basically no change either.
The market is rebounding as I write so I expect the news is even better. Although, this pool of stocks beat the market so far in the short run, I hope to track this group for a year, or at least until Major League Baseball's spring training opens in 2009.
If you want to track the story with me the first post was Serious Money: 10 finance stocks as the market bounces. I remain stubbornly optimistic that this is a buying opportunity and investors will be sorry they did not have the courage to buy stocks when they were hated. The follow-up was Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials
The initial prices are as of July 29, 2008.
Continue reading Serious Money: Wisdom or folly -- 10 financials updated
Posted Aug 7th 2008 1:11PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Rants and raves, PepsiCo (PEP), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Avon Products (AVP), Sara Lee Corp (SLE), Xerox Corp (XRX), Kraft Foods'A' (KFT), Personal finance, Workspace
In a conversation with an attorney friend of mine, who happens to be a woman, she asked for some general financial guidance. During the course of the conversation it occurred to me that women need to save more than men. There are many reasons for this, here are a few:
The first and most obvious reason women need to save more than men is that they live longer -- often without the support of a significant other. Living longer and living alone cost more money.
Second of all, women still do not have complete earnings parity with men. Some of this has to do with job type and some with history. But nevertheless, we are not there yet. If there is a 15% disparity, then a woman is starting at a disadvantage whether saving for her retirement in the future or for buying a gallon of gas today. This can only be made up by saving more and investing more. This is a worthy goal except that with less resources the difficulty is exacerbated.
Continue reading Three reasons women need to save more than men -- Seriously!
Posted Aug 4th 2008 2:52PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Products and services, Rants and raves, Apple Inc (AAPL), Market matters, iPhone, Chasing Value
Well, things played out as I thought and Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) closed on Friday August 1, 2008 at a price of $156.66 and opened pennies down today. I will be the first one to admit that a few of my calls have been terrible, but this one was right on target.
Quoting from one of last years posts, "However, I thought Apple might be worth up to $150 and a month later was willing to consider $160 and that is where I stood." So I'm on record pegging the stock between $150 and $160. Having made the call on the money I will now tell the world that a lot of this game is luck, but that is all I thought it was worth.
Why two rights? One of our brighter commentors, Beltway Greg had pegged Apple around $200 a year out and it made the number in December 2007 long before even he thought it might and I gave him credit at the time. I was looking farther out and as the current price evidences I was correct also. But what's wrong with this picture? When I wrote, I tried to figure what I thought the stock was worth as did Greg.
Continue reading Chasing Value: Apple -- two rights and one wrong
Posted Aug 1st 2008 12:31PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Major movement, Good news, Money and Finance Today, Chasing Value, Stocks to Buy, MBIA Inc (MBI)

Several of my editors and colleagues have commented about me sticking my neck out
calling the bottom of the market two weeks ago and then suggesting it's time to buy the financial sector, (see:
Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials) however, I stand by this theme and this morning
MBIA Inc. (NYSE:
MBI) is lending support to the idea.
MBIA closed yesterday to end the month at $5.93 and is up 24% to $7.36 as I write at 9:04 AM, PST. The stock is down 90% from it's 52-week high of $68.98. They have announced an earnings
conference call for August 8, 2008.The company is still losing money giving it a negative P/E. However, it
is maintaining a substantial dividend cut the dividend in February (Yahoo and AOL still show TTM) and Barron's has repeatedly noted that if this company does not get crushed by it's leverage, it's projected revenue based on existing book with no new business might make this a $40 dollar stock. I have not done their level of analysis so my recommendation was based on the pool of ten stocks and only a few of them bouncing back.
The story is worth following so look for an update later and another report next week.
UPDATE: Today's closing numbers $
7.67, up $
1.74 +
29.34%
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of MBI.
Posted Jul 31st 2008 11:59AM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: International markets, China, International Business Machines (IBM), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR), Huaneng Power Intl ADS (HNP), Johnson Controls (JCI), Honeywell Intl (HON), United Technologies (UTX), China Life Insurance ADS (LFC), Headline news, Aluminum Corp of China ADS (ACH), China Mobile Limited (CHL), China Med Technologies Inc. (CMED), East West Bancorp (EWBC)

The Summer Olympics are only days away and what the Chinese had hoped would be their coming out party to celebrate all that is good, may instead become quite the opposite.
The air pollution in Beijing is so bad that even reducing automobile traffic by 50% has not helped much. China is now considering a 90% reduction according to news reports. Athletes are staying in other countries until the games begin so that they may train somewhere they can breathe. There are also reports that many athletes involved in stamina events will be forced to wear masks to protect themselves from the particulates in the air.
Now
Reuters is reporting that "Some
International Olympic Committee officials cut a deal to let China block sensitive websites despite promises of unrestricted access, a senior IOC official admitted on Wednesday."
So the world media will not be able to do their jobs in a manner they are accustomed to. But who are we actually referring to? Western media, of course, because half the world still limits access to information to some degree.
Continue reading Chinese markets: The truth will set you free -- maybe
Posted Jul 30th 2008 1:52PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Major movement, Market matters, Citigroup Inc. (C), Merrill Lynch (MER), Wachovia Corp (WB), Washington Mutual (WM), Serious Money, Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Stocks to Buy, Newcastle Investment (NCT), MBIA Inc (MBI), Gramercy Capital (GKK), E*TRADE (ETFC), East West Bancorp (EWBC)
After the market closed last night, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounding from Monday's notable drop and ending the trading day at 11,397.56, up 266.48 (+2.39%), I posted Serious Money: 10 finance stocks as the market bounces. This is the follow-up post listing the full pool of speculative stocks that as a group I believe will beat the overall market in the next 12 months.
The prediction business is thankless and the speculative business is even worse; it is often painful. I usually refrain from this activity but today I play the contrarian in a Sir John Templeton (RIP) sort of way, jumping into the stock market's worst performing sector with both feet. I believe the market is at or near a bottom and this summer is the time to buy.
Looking for a break in the clouds, yesterday I started choosing ten stocks knowing that three or four may go to zero, a few more will survive with modest gains, and three or four will rise, not returning to their old glory soon but more than covering the ones that fail. The first four picks have been bleeding all over Wall Street for a year now and the blood-letting is not done yet.
Initially I was looking for stocks that had fallen at least 70%. After reviewing my figures, I have compromised and changed that to 63% so that I could include some of the major companies like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) that are broadly held and have strong reader interest. Prices are as of July 29, 2008.
Continue reading Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials
Posted Jul 29th 2008 6:02PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Major movement, Rants and raves, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Market matters, Citigroup Inc. (C), Money and Finance Today, Merrill Lynch (MER), Serious Money, DJIA, Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Stocks to Buy, MBIA Inc (MBI)
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average bounced back from yesterday's poor showing. It ended the trading day at 11,397.56, that's plus 266.48 (+2.39%) returning more than it had lost only 24 hours ago.
There are plenty of prognosticators explaining why this happened and so I am not going to join the crowd this afternoon with my own version. Leave it to say we are in a period of uncertainty where investors and traders alike are a bit jumpy. We did have a 5.4 magnitude earthquake today in Southern California, only fitting for this type of market.
In the meantime I have been wondering how to take advantage of the lousy situation in the financial sector of the market. How can I maximize my gains and control risk at the same time? I guess we are all trying to do this, but few will appreciate my contrarian, 'no guts no glory' approach.
I think you have to be buying banks and investment companies and I have decided that ten is the right number. Sir John Templeton (RIP) is the catalyst for this notion. I am already on record (Serious Money: More signs the market has bottomed) that this is the time to be selectively buying and 'my pal Warren' said as much at the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) annual meeting when he suggested the financials have seen the worst of the storm.
Continue reading Serious Money: 10 finance stocks as the market bounces
Posted Jul 28th 2008 2:53PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Chasing Value, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years, Stocks to Buy, Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), Technology, Best Stocks for 2008

This week's
Barron's (subscription required) finally had
Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:
ISRG) on its cover, and cover it it did, but with a wet blanket.
The stock is down in early trading today, but that is probably warranted given the runup last week when it jumped $52 in one day after it reported one more mind boggling quarter. I only exaggerate slightly as the company beat estimates by 10 cents a share and increased margins in all areas, when I reported then,
Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical beat the street AGAIN!The Barron's story,
Surgical Robot Cuts Both Ways by Andrew Barry questions the stock's valuation and the company's projections of expanding sales and service figures.
Mr. Barry points out that the stock is trading at sky high valuations and that any disappointment could result in a 25% drop in the stock price. I would remind ISRG fans and stock watchers that this has happened on many occasions without any bad news. It had reached a high around $360 per share and then traded down until it took a dive into the $240s when Wall Street decided that the slowing economy and tighter fiscal restraint on the part of hospital administrators would dampen ISRG's prospects in the second half of 2008.
Continue reading Barron's covers Intuitive Surgical with wet blanket
Posted Jul 23rd 2008 10:22AM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Major movement, International markets, Earnings reports, Good news, Products and services, Top Picks 2007, Chasing Value, Stocks to Buy, Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), Technology, Best Stocks for 2008
My favorite company, Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG), the maker of the da Vinci Surgical System reported earnings Tuesday afternoon that creamed Street guesstimates by 10 cents per share. Intuitive posted earnings per share of $1.28 versus analyst consensus of $1.18.
For the 23rd quarter in a row, just like clockwork and without missing a beat, Intuitive's top and bottom line growth simply ignored the global economy, blazing its own trail. I wonder how ISRG would have done if the economy was not in the dumps?
Overall, second quarter revenue shot up 56% from $142.2 million to $219.2 million. Instruments and accessories revenue increased 61% to $73.6 million from $45.8 million. Training revenue increased 44% to $29.4 million from $20.3 million during the second quarter of 2007.
Lonnie Smith, Chairman and CEO of Intuitive Surgical, said, "We are pleased with our second quarter revenue and earnings growth. These results reflect the continued adoption of the da Vinci Surgical System platform across a broadening group of surgical procedures."
Continue reading Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical beat the street AGAIN!
Posted Jul 22nd 2008 2:25PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Major movement, Good news, Rants and raves, Market matters, United Parcel'B' (UPS), Wachovia Corp (WB), Serious Money, DJIA

Some may view the sun as rising while others see it setting. Before you send me your rant that the pain has just begun and I am foolish to believe the recent market upswing is anything but a short term reprieve, let me share a few thoughts.
Today
Wachovia Corp (NYSE:
WB)
reported a loss of $1.30 a share compared to the average analysts' guess of $1.27 a share. WB lost almost $9 billion, is cutting the dividend and will layoff 6,400 employees. All bad news
-- and still the the stock and the DJIA are up!
At the same time, oil is trading down about $4 a barrel during the busiest driving time of the year because people are actually conserving gas. The market is working. It should also be noted that after the Bush administration spent over seven and a half years stating various preconditions to establishing relations with Iran, last week they decided to send an envoy and start a dialog. It may be good or bad politics depending on your view
-- but it is only good for the stabilization of oil prices.Continue reading Serious Money: More signs the market has bottomed
Posted Jul 21st 2008 4:19PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: International markets, Next big thing, Bargain stocks, Chasing Value, Stocks to Buy, Technology, Raytheon Company (RTN), Best Stocks for 2008
When you watch your kids playing war games on their computers, it must have occurred to you at some point that this might all be part of some grand scheme to get the next generation well-versed in a new set of skills. Hand-to-hand combat (except with their siblings) is out and unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs are in.
The AP (7/20) reported that Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) recently unveiled "its new control system for unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs." Raytheon's "Universal Control System,...uses some hardware from the gaming world," and is expected to "shorten training time and help prevent crashes of expensive unmanned drone aircraft by providing a more interactive experience for the pilot." The company focused on "making the system more intuitive -- replacing keystrokes with a game console -- after consulting with experts and discovering that thumbs are the most energy-efficient and accurate way to control an aircraft."
Given Iran's recent missile tests and all the saber rattling that goes on around the world, it should be no surprise that governments have been seeking Raytheon's Patriot Missile technology for years, but RTN is also a leader in a wide range of radar systems, guidance systems, airport monitoring and control systems, and of course the latest in UAV technology.
Continue reading Chasing Value: Raytheon says 'Game on'
Posted Jul 21st 2008 3:02PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Other issues, Bad news, Press releases, Consumer experience, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), IndyMac Bancorp (IMB), Bear Stearns Cos (BSC), Recession

As a sign of how disconnected one can be, I had to ask my 12-year old about
Steve & Barry's. I had not heard of it and it is receiving way too many comments on our site to be ignored. My colleague
Zac Bissonnette started blogging about it a month ago
Steve & Barry's on the brink of bankruptcy? and the comments are still coming in strong as the
story progressed.
Steve & Barry's filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on July 9, 2008, and information about its status and answers to frequently asked questions can be found
here.
The company has been expanding rapidly and clearly hit a brick wall with consumer budgets severely strained and the economy facing uncertainty in the short term. However, this is supposed to be a discount chain. Perhaps the discounting amounted to selling dollars for ninety cents, and it could not make it up on volume.
This is a relatively small company, but clearly it matters to a lot of people. The number of comments we have received has surpassed most of our recent stories, even those of the Bear Stearns takeover (acquired by
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:
JPM)) and the
IndyMac (NYSE:
IDMC) collapse.
Steve & Barry's might have had an IPO sometime in its future, but that is not likely in the current environment. What is it that makes this story so compelling to our readers? If it is because the stores are so great, what went wrong in your neighborhood?
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of any of JPM.Posted Jul 20th 2008 6:30PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Rants and raves, Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Sunday Funnies
Giving some thought to what in the world Mr. Gramm was thinking about (or not), it seems to me that his angst last week about Americans being a bunch of whiners was quite self referential. He obviously has lost his sense of balance and is spending too much time with the country club crowd to realize that some folks are feeling true pain.
Unless he is getting free gas or his limousine driver is not speaking with him then how could he have missed the fact that everyone in our country has seen a rapid and significant rise in prices. Ask anyone driving a truck for a living, just as a sampling. I would not consider their plight frivolous.
For some reason he has also missed the fact that all three of our major automobile manufacturers Ford Motor (NYSE: F), General Motors (NYSE: GM), and Chrysler (now privately held) are teetering on bankruptcy.
I have been fortunate enough to have traveled to the four corners of the United States, Alaska and Hawaii and I would actually say we tend to be overly optimistic at times in the US. By comparison many of the 25 countries I have had the chance to visit can be some what negative. I would place us somewhere in the middle.
Continue reading Sunday Funnies: Phil Gramm loses his balance
Posted Jul 16th 2008 1:23PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Major movement, Earnings reports, Rants and raves, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW), Wells Fargo (WFC), IndyMac Bancorp (IMB), U.S. Bancorp (USB)

Yesterday's Major League All-Star Game went into extra innings (15 total) before the American League won 4 to 3, earning the home field advantage when the World Series rolls around in October. Yesterday was also the day I called the bottom of our economic woes (see
Will Bush throw a change-up at Yankee Stadium?).
Calling the bottom should not be confused with the end of the pain. It could get worse but I see signs of the turn, and today the market, for the moment, is up. Oil prices are down, as I write, to $132 per barrel and I do not think we will be seeing $200 oil any time soon, as some have opined.
Today's
Wells Fargo (NYSE:
WFC) earnings report set things off in the right direction.
Wells Fargo: Beating expectations by my colleague Steven Halpern will give you the details, but the highlights are lower earnings, a 10% increase in the dividend yield, and a tolerable and understandable charge for bad loans and to increase reserves.
If Bush's change-up marks the bottom, then WFC is the slugger that hit the ball back over the fence. Can one report from one bank make a difference? Yes it can, if people read it as a sign of things to come. At the same time, the capitulation I describe in IndyMac (IMB) turns to dust is another sign that we may be at the turning point.
Continue reading Did Wells Fargo's earnings report signal a turnaround?
Posted Jul 16th 2008 11:11AM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Rants and raves, IndyMac Bancorp (IMB), Recession
Last Friday, June 11, 2007, the Feds basically put IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) into receivership, even as they reminded customers that their deposits were insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) covering each individual account up to $100,000.
When I posted IndyMac (IMB) turns to stone on June 8, IMB had shut down lending. Now, as they have turned to dust from a shareholder perspective, customers are still lining up to withdraw their funds despite government assurances that there is nothing to worry about.
Some fret that this bailout will cost taxpayers money but most of the money will be coming from actual deposits as company assets are liquidated. However, while a majority of the costs are covered, the process will incur significant costs nevertheless, since this is only the tip of the iceberg and other banks are sure to fall into the abyss as well.
Continue reading IndyMac (IMB) turns to dust
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